Ambassador Kedar Shrestha Nepal Confronts Growing Insurgency by Craig Mauro Nepalese Ambassador Kedar Shrestha has a message for the international community: ìYou will have to bear with us.î When King Gyanendra dismissed the government, suspended fundamental rights and declared a state of emergency on Feb. 1 to confront a strengthening Maoist insurgency, several countries condemned the move and called for a restoration of democracy. India and the United Kingdom, two of Nepalís oldest and most important allies, suspended military aid to the mountain kingdom. The United States and Denmark were considering doing the same. Shrestha, who became envoy to Washington about seven months ago, is unapologetic, saying the kingís actions were necessary to bring peace to a country bloodied by an insurgency that has become increasingly acute and lethal in the past few years. ìFor some time, we will have to curtail some civil liberties, we will have to clamp down on human rights, we will have to put a few people behind bars, which may not be very pleasing to Western countries, but we have to ta ke these measures,î says Shrestha, a career diplomat with more than 40 years of experience in Europe, South Asia and the United States. ìItís not as if tanks rolled into a functioning parliament and put everybody under house arrest or started killing people,î he continues. ìNothing like that happened. If anything, the action on Feb. 1 was seen by many, many people as a relief and hope that it may bring peace. Peace is needed now in our country more than anything else. Once we have peace, then we can talk about other things, like democracy and human rights. This is for strengthening democracy in the long run.î King Gyanendra remains committed to multiparty democracy and upholding human rights, Shrestha says, and he has pledged to hold elections within three years. So far, however, no clear roadmap for reaching that goal has been annunciated. What is clear is that Nepalís Maoist insurgency, launched in 1996, is getting more powerful. Donald Camp, principal deputy assistant secretary for South Asian affairs at the U.S. State Department, told a House committee in January that Nepal confronts the ìreal possibilityî of the Maoists seizing power. ìIn recent years the Maoist presence has spread dramatically throughout Nepal,î Camp said. ìThe Maoists have made clear their intention to impose a one-party ëpeopleís republic,í collectivize agriculture, ëre-educateí class enemies, and export their revolution to neighboring states. The humanitarian ramifications of such a regime would be immense, reminiscent of the nightmare brought upon Cambodia by Pol Pot.î About 11,000 people have been killed in the conflict, Shrestha says. The Maoists use bombings, road blockades and extortion of businesses, institutions and even schools to wage war against the government and Nepalís constitutional monarchy. Kidnapping, torture and conscription of childrenóone from each family in villages that they raidóare also tactics. ìLast year as many as 10,000 schoolchildren and teachers were abducted for periods of up to seven days. They try to indoctrinate them and send them back,î Shrestha says. The Maoists have also had success in calling general strikes across the country, threatening shopkeepers and business owners with reprisals if they try to stay open. To protest the kingís clampdown, the rebels called an 11-day strike in April that news reports said had affected much of the country except the capital. ìThey try to paralyze the country, stop supplies from coming into the big cities, especially the Katmandu valley, the capital, but this has not proven very effective,î Shrestha says. ìThey stop day-to-day life to a certain extent, but they have not been successful in winning over the minds of the people, because the people are fed up by these blockades and strikes happening every week or every other week.î The ambassador says there are an estimated 5,000 to 6,000 ìhardcoreî rebels, plus about 12,000 to 15,000 ìmilitiaî on whom they can call. ìBut that is a very rough estimate,î he cautions. ìThey seem to come in large numbers, but how hardcore they are, how well-trained they are, how willing they are to fight is difficult to establish.î Their guerrilla-style tactics make it difficult to combat the rebels militarily, Shrestha adds. ìThey hit and run,î he says. ìThey have this advantage of surprise and assimilation. They surprise you in the dark of the night and then they disappear and immediately mix in with the common people. They are just not there.î Nevertheless, the Maoists suffered a major blow on April 7 when government forces repelled a rebel assault on an army base in the remote western district of Rukum. The rebels attacked with rocket launchers and mortars, but officials said more than 100 of them were killed. The government said three of its troops died. ìWe havenít seen this type of battle for quite some time now. The fact that the insurgents had so many casualties goes to show that a) the government forces are stronger, and b) that the morale or management or organization of the insurgents has grown weaker,î Shrestha says. ìThey will have to think again deeply about their mode of operations. This should send the message to them that itís not in their long-term interest to keep on fighting. They cannot sustain these kinds of casualties forever.î Shrestha denies that the rebels have gained control of large swaths of territory or that they have broad popular support, although he said they do have strongholds in remote parts of the country, particularly in the west, where the insurgency originated. ìItís not likely that theyíll seize power, but their influence could grow if we do not address this problem squarely.î The ambassador says the governmentís strategy for containing the insurgency focuses first on political dialogue, even though the Maoists have twice broken cease-fires during peace talks in 2001 and 2003. ìThey are Nepalese, and we want them to be in the national political mainstream. We donít want to exclude them. Weíre telling them, ëSit at the negotiating table and letís see what we can agree on,íî Shrestha says. ìWe have been doing that all these years, but it looks like they are not coming to the negotiating table. They want to fight it out. If that is the case, then we have no option. But the door is always open for them to come to negotiations.î Reducing poverty will also be an important part of the governmentís strategy. ìThat is how they started to build their base. Poverty, backwardness, this is what the Maoist are feeding upon,î Shrestha says. ìPoverty alleviation has been one of the major thrusts of our economic planning. We want to give the basic necessities of life, like food and shelter, education, health, transportation. To do all of that, we need peace first.î Human rights groups have accused Nepalese security forces of illegal detentions, torture and extrajudicial executions, issues that U.S. and U.K. officials say they have pressed Nepalís government on. The kingís actions on Feb. 1 raised further concern among some of Nepalís key foreign donors, which account for half of the countryís development budget. The United States and United Kingdom recalled their ambassadors in mid-February for consultations. A week later the United Kingdom suspended a recently approved $2.5 million military grant package that would have included equipment for surveillance aircraft and several dozen land vehicles. Camp, the U.S. State Department official, told Congress that the United States is considering a similar step. U.S. security aid to Nepal this fiscal year is about $2 millionóone-twentieth the amount the United States gives to the country in economic and social aid. Shrestha says such steps would prove counterproductive, although they wonít cripple Nepalís armed forces. ìThis will only embolden the Maoists and strengthen them. It may weaken the morale of the state forces,î he says. ìAll these activities could end up helping the terrorist groups rather than bring about peace.î On April 11, the government agreed to allow U.N. human rights monitors into Nepal. The move, which came as the U.N. Human Rights Commissionís annual session got under way in Geneva, was seen as an attempt to head off a resolution condemning the kingís takeover. The U.N. bodyís chief and Nepalís foreign minister signed an agreement that would set up an office in the country as soon as possible. Camp told Congress that the United States is ìdeeply troubledî by the kingís actions, but he also acknowledged that initial reaction from many Nepalese was positive, ìreflecting widespread frustration and despair over the years of political imp asse as the Maoists gained strength.î Indeed, Nepalese politics have been turbulent since democracy was restored in 1990 following more than two decades of a ìpartylessî system based on local governing councils that effectively granted absolute power to the monarchy. In the second half of the í90s, while the insurgency was coalescing, five unstable coalition governments successively ran Nepal. Between 1999 and 2002, there were three prime ministers. The political instability has continued in the last three years, as the Maoists gathered strength. ìAll the governments for all these years, especially during the last four, five, six years, do not seem to have been keen to address this major issue of the Maoist insurgency,î Shrestha says. ìInstead of finding a solution, the issue has become more serious and acute. The country has been suffering a lot, and there was no sign of a solution. The king had to make a very bold decision and take the reins of the government into his own hands.î After Feb. 1, the government put several opposition leaders, including former prime ministers Sher Bahadur Deuba and Girija Prasad Koirala, under house arrest, although they were released from the restrictions last month. Shrestha says the move was ordered to prevent an outburst of political violence in the streets. ìIt was also for their own safety,î he adds. ìWhen violence starts, you never know how it will end up.î Hundreds of opposition members have also been arrested for holding or planning demonstrations, which are illegal under the state of emergency imposed by the king. Shrestha says most are released shortly after their arrest. ìItís big news after we arrest them, but when we release them after a couple of hours or a couple of days, the news doesnít get that much publicity.î The government has also tightened its grip on the press, censoring ìanything that would help the insurgents,î Shrestha says. ìSometimes there are exaggerations in the press [that] are not entirely helpful.î The ambassador says controls have been greatly relaxed since the days immediately following Feb. 1 and that the media is now ìlively and critical of the government.î Shrestha admits that the kingís clampdown may have helped to unify the political opposition, but he insists that the move has significant popular support. ì[Supportive] groups are not well organized, so you do not hear their voices as much as you hear the oppositionís voice,î Shrestha says. ìThere are many people who are supportive of the kingís action. Most people in Nepal want peace now because they are fed up with all the violence and destruction of the last nine years.î Shrestha, who has served before in Washington and Brussels and at the United Nations, has spent much of his first few months on the job managing diplomacy related to the insurgency and the kingís moves. He says that if the issue wasnít consuming most of his energy now, his priorities would be increasing trade between Nepal and the United States, and bringing more U.S. investment and tourists to Nepal. ìWe are not giving up on that,î Shrestha says. ìFor the time being, it may be difficult. We are still trying hard to convince Americans [to trade, visit and invest in Nepal], because in the long run we have to try to build a strong base for if and when things improve.î Craig Mauro is a contributing writer for The Washington Diplomat.