“Cuba’s objectives in renewing and expanding its relations with Russia are obvious,” said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of Miami’s Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies. “Russia is a major power with a permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council. Cuba desperately needs all the foreign aid and credits it can get. Russia has been a traditional supplier of weapons and spare parts to Cuba, and Castro is interested in modernizing his armed forces.” There’s also the petroleum issue, Suchlicki added, noting that Venezuela currently provides 92,000 barrels of oil a day on credit that Cuba will never be able to repay. “Russia can be an alternate source for oil if Venezuela were to fall apart or [Hugo] Chávez is kicked out, although I don’t think this is going to happen,” Suchlicki said. The other side of the coin is Moscow’s motivation. The financially strapped Russians would also like to recover a part of Cuba’s $20 billion debt, most of which dates from the Soviet era. The economics of necessity is also why Smith doesn’t seem overly concerned with Moscow’s latest overtures to both Cuba and Venezuela, including a recent offer of $1 billion in credits to Venezuelan President Chávez to buy weapons and Russian nuclear technology. “This doesn’t mean that Russia and Cuba are going back to their former relationship, but given the economic distress in Cuba, having more economic ties with Russia just makes sense,” Smith said. “At a time when U.S. standing in Latin America has never been so low — thanks to Bush — Russia is simply taking advantage of that. They’re trying to reach out and strengthen their relations with Latin America.” However, it’s not only Venezuela that’s benefiting from military ties with Moscow. Although Venezuela is the largest purchaser of armaments, Argentina has bought helicopters, radars and air traffic control systems. Peru has also acquired Russian weaponry, while Brazil, Mexico and Colombia all pursue cordial military relations, according to Odeen Ishmael, Guyana’s former ambassador to the United States and an expert on regional politics. Russia’s trade with Brazil surpassed $7 billion in 2008, an amount likely to reach $10 billion by 2010, said Ishmael, noting that Medvedev recently spent three days in Brazil, discussing the development of bilateral ties in oil and gas production, nuclear power, agriculture and space exploration. “Evidently, the expanded military relations between Russia and Venezuela, as well as with other countries in the region, are worrying to the United States, which has traditionally dominated the arms market in Latin America,” said Ishmael. “Thus, Russia’s military investment can easily undermine U.S. influence and some military analysts feel that this may whip up an arms race in the region.” As such, Suchlicki sees a more sinister side to Russia’s new fascination with Cuba. “The Russians are interested in rebuilding the Lourdes eavesdropping facility [which was dismantled in 2002 at the insistence of the U.S. government]. I think they’re going to do it under the guise of creating a satellite tracking station [in Cuba].” The objective, he charged, would be to provide the Russians an important nearby listening post to spy on U.S. military, civilian and industrial communications. Should the Obama administration be worried about this? “Absolutely,” replied Suchlicki. “The U.S. government is worried about this new presence in Cuba. Compared to Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, this is chicken shit. But it’s something people in the Pentagon are following and tracking. I’m not saying it’s a priority, but there’s definitely some element of concern.” Larry Luxner is news editor of The Washington Diplomat. SIDEBAR: Key Events in History Of Cuba-Russia Relations 1960-62: Alliance with the USSR is built following Fidel Castro’s triumphant revolution, though the Escalante affair and Moscow’s unilateral actions during the Cuban Missile Crisis create serious tensions, along with permanent Cuban distrust toward the Soviets. 1964-68: Tensions and conflicts grow between Cuba and the Soviet leadership under Nikita Khrushchev and the early years of Leonid Brezhnev. 1974: Brezhnev visits Cuba. 1978-79: Havana and Moscow clash over strategies in Africa. The Soviets refuse in 1979 to meet Cuban demands to upgrade its military hardware. 1985-89: Fidel becomes an outspoken critic of perestroika and glasnost; warns of its dangers. Tripartite (Angola-Cuba-USSR) cooperation ceases almost completely. 1989: Mikhail Gorbachev visits Cuba. Agreements are signed but not implemented, and Soviet trade and cooperation fall apart. Subsequently, Cuba refuses to meet financial obligations concerning its debts to the collapsing Soviet Union. 2000-01: Vladimir Putin visits Cuba. Moscow unilaterally closes down the Lourdes eavesdropping station, with a subsequent freezing of bilateral relations. 2004: Russia begins new rapprochement with Cuba. Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov makes a very friendly visit, seeking to restore ties and expand cooperation. 2006: Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov visits Cuba and postpones indefinitely the issue of “old debt,” while agreeing to reschedule $166 million in current payments and grant Cuba a new credit line worth $355 million. 2007: Bilateral trade reaches $400 million (compared to $8 billion in the mid-1980s). Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin visits Cuba three times in 12 months; an additional $20 million credit is granted. Important agreements in oil, nickel mining and transport are also signed. July 2008: Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, visits Cuba and meets with Raúl Castro. October 2008: Alexander Maslov, Russia’s chief of air defense of the ground army, visits Cuba and signs key treaties in IT and communications with Cuban counterpart Ramiro Valdés Menéndez. Metropolitan Kiril Gundjaev inaugurates the Russian Orthodox Cathedral in Old Havana. Foreign Minister Felipe Pérez Roque visits Russia and meets with Putin and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, but dismisses any possibility of a Russian deployment of weapons in Cuba. November 2008: Medvedev’s Nov. 27-28 trip to Havana marks the first visit of a Russian leader to Cuba since 2000; Fidel writes a reflexion critical of the Soviet role in Angola in the 1980s. December 2008: Russian warships dock in Havana — the first time since the Cold War. January 2009: President Raúl Castro visits Moscow, the first official visit by a Cuban head of state to Russia in 23 years; major economic and political treaties are signed. — Larry Luxner

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