Report on How to Revitalize U.N. Points to Issue of Restructuring Security Council by Sean OíDriscoll NEW YORKóIn December, a high-level panel of diplomats will present a report to the United Nations that is likely to lead to the biggest shake-up of the organization since its foundation. Signifying the importance of the task, the 16-member U.N.-appointed panel includes major names in international diplomacy, including former U.S. National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans and former Norwegian Prime Minister and former Director General of the World Health Organization Gro Harlem Brundtland. Officially known as ìThe Secretary-Generalís Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change,î the panel is expected to present its report on Dec. 1, detailing how the United Nations can be revitalized in the 21st century, particularly after the turmoil of the Iraq war resolution. More important, the panel is expected to recommend changes to the Security Council that could dramatically alter the councilís current structure of five permanent, veto-wielding me mbersóthe United States, Great Britain, China, France, and Russia. In the U.N. headquarters in New York, the panel is the main topic of conversation, as potential new members to the permanent U.N. Security Council wait to hear if they have been included in the report as possible candidates. So far, there are strong signs that the panel will recommend major reform. During the summer, its members held a closed-door meeting in Baden, Austria, but leaked details indicated that they wanted to scrap the current system of five permanent members and 10 regionally elected nonpermanent members, which many U.N. member states believe is colonial in influence and hugely undemocratic. According to more recent statements from the panel, there is an ìoverwhelming consensusî to expand the Security Council from its present two-tiered, 15-member structure to a three-tiered, 24-member system. Attempts at reform beyond this new tiered Security Council system have not sat well with some of the five existing permanent Security Council members, which see a dilution of their power if the permanent Security Council system is completely abandoned. However, even within the new proposed system of tiered representation, the regional election system has many countries alarmed, particularly as individual countries tend to have their greatest quarrels with nearby neighbors, who might not represent their interests if elected to the Security Council. According to professor Joseph Schwartzberg, author of ìRevitalizing the United Nations: Reform Through Weighted Voting,î the new plan is certainly an improvement but does little to address the overall problemóthat the very idea of a veto-holding Security Council creates an elite club and does not help resolve regional disputes. ìIt would still leave too much of the world without effective representation. Many countries in the U.N. might rather not be represented at all than to be putatively ërepresentedí by a regional neighbor with whom they have enduring hostile relations,î he said. ìPeople will see the scheme for what it really is, a device for perpetuating the privileges of the presently advantaged powers by the co-optation of an arbitrarily selected second tier of states.î However, the proposals are likely to receive a warm welcome from top officials at the United Nations. U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has said he is likely to adopt the panelís proposals and will present his own recommendations to the General Assembly in March 2005, when the reforms are likely to dominate discussions on the United Nationís 60th anniversary. In anticipation, four countriesóGermany, India, Japan and Brazilóhave formed an unprecedented coalition to push for representation on the Security Council. According to German U.N. Ambassador Guenter Pleuger, the four countries have been holding intensive meetings to find the best method of restructuring the Security Council. Speaking after the United Nations assembled for its 59th General Assembly in September, he said it was still too early to determine if the reform efforts would be a success. ìThe establishment of the panel Ö has created a new momentum for reform, and I canít say whether that will succeed, but at least we have a chance, I think, next year to have another try at reform,î he said. Plueger said that Germanyís drive for a place on the Security Council is not mere self-interest and that the whole of the United Nations would suffer if the reform movement was not successful. ìIf we succeed, I think itís good for the U.N. If we donít, we wonít be suffering from that, but the U.N. will suffer and that canít be in anybodyís interests.î The coalition formed by Germany, India, Japan and Brazil, dubbed the G4 group by the media, has strengthened after Septemberís General Assembly meeting. A joint declaration by German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the Indian and Japanese prime ministers, Manmohan Singh and Junichiro Koizumi, argued that expanded membership was crucial to addressing post-9/11 global instability, also calling for a permanent Security Council seat for Africa as a way of balancing the regional makeup of the council. In a strongly worded statement, they added: ìIn order for the international community to effectively address the various threats and challenges that it presently faces, it is important to reform the United Nations as a whole.î At the United Nations itself, the four countries have been making increasingly impassioned pleas for reform. In his address to the U.N. General Assembly, Brazilís president said the Security Council ìmust reflect todayís realityónot perpetuate the post-World War II era. Reform proposals that simply dress the current structure in new clothes and do not provide for an increase in the number of permanent members are manifestly insufficient.î As a result of this impassioned lobbying, one of the five current permanent members, Britain, has already voiced its support for all four candidates. Britain is particularly keen to see its former colony, India, take a place on the Security Council. British Prime Minister Tony Blair said recently that any lack of inclusion of India, with a population of 1.2 billion, would ìnot be in tuneî with the realities of modern politics. However, any new inclusions to the Security Council will come after fierce debate. Pakistan has voiced strong opposition to a position for India, while Brazilís candidacy has been met with a frosty response from Mexico. In addition, China has voiced concern about Japanís candidacy, saying the United Nations is ìnot a board of directorsî whose composition could be decided by ìthe financial contribution of its members,î a reference to Japanís position as the second largest contributor to U.N. finances. South Korea also has difficulties with Japanese representation on the Security Council, fearing uneven economic and political advantage in Asia if Japan is handed so much power. South Korean U.N. Ambassador Choi Sung-hong, who serves as deputy permanent representative at the U.N. Working Group on Security Council Reform, pointedly warned that reform should not lead to regional inequality. ìWe certainly agree that the modernization of the Security Council through the one-time inclusion of all reasonable ideas would be an outstanding achievement, but the realities are less than encouraging. We should be cautious of the all-or-nothing approach,î he warned. Toshiharu Tarui, a spokesman for the Japanese Mission to the United Nations, smiled when asked why South Korea and China would have difficulties with Japanese membership. ìThat is really a subject for their own missions to the U.N.,î he said. Toshiharu said the G4 countries were confident that they had widespread support within the United Nations and are having ongoing meetings, at the prime minister, foreign minister and U.N. ambassador levels, in an effort to strengthen their coalition. He cautioned though that it was still too early to put any timeframe for the possible entry of the four countries into the Security Council. A spokesman for the Brazilian Mission said the G4 coalition was an informal arrangement and that it did not have a fixed date for talks. ìThere are regular meetings on the ambassadorial level, but no fixed structure,î he said. While Brazil is receiving very strong backing from the United States, the big international issue, Iraq, could prove to be a huge stumbling block for Germany. That country has been bickering with Italy, which has sent troops to Iraq and enjoys much closer relations with Washington. Italy has accused Germany of advancing a selfish national interest instead of calling for Security Council representation for the wider European Union. Late last month, the Italian argument received a strong endorsement from U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who barely disguised the underlying issueóGermanyís lack of support for the Iraq war. ìI can assure you that I am watching with great interest the report that will be forthcoming from the panel studying the reorganization of the U.N.,î Powell said in Washington. ìAnd when that report comes forward Ö you can be absolutely sure that Italy will get every consideration.î He then looked around the room before noting pointedly: ìWe donít forget our friends.î Sean OíDriscoll is a contributing writer for The Washington Diplomat.