Jerrold M. Post Psychiatrist Analyzes Controversial World Leaders by John Shaw Even when he is working in his comfortably cluttered office in Bethesda, Md., Jerrold M. Post spends his days traveling to some very intriguing places: He journeys into the hearts and minds of the worldís most influentialóand often fearsomeóleaders. Post, a medical doctor and psychiatrist, is a pioneer in the field of psychological profiling. He has devoted his career to figuring out what makes world leaders tick and what compels followers to respond to the summons of important leaders. In an interview with The Washington Diplomat, Post said political analysts pay too little attention to the psychological development of leaders when analyzing international affairs. Although Post is interested in all kinds of leaders, he has devoted much of his attention to describing the worldís most controversial political figures, including Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, Fidel Castro, Yasser Arafat, Kim Jong Il and Slobodan Milosevic. "Since the end of the Cold War, the security environment is dominated by rogue leaders and terrorist leaders, and itís crucial we have a nuanced understanding of all the key leaders weíre dealing with. We tend to over-rely on technical intelligence and insufficiently incorporate behavioral intelligence," he said. In his research, Post considers what psychological and political forces compel leaders to lead, the intricate and powerful connections between leaders and followers, the personal perceptions or misperceptions that intensify international tensions, and the psychological forces that result in war. Post, 70, is a professor of psychiatry, political psychology and international affairs, and is the director of the political psychology program at George Washington Universityís Elliott School of International Affairs. Soft-spoken and affable, Post appears to be the paradigmatic absent-minded professor, but he is an enormously busy and prolific one, writing books and essays at a dizzying pace. His most recent book is titled "Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World." His next book, which will be published shortly, focuses on the "terrorist mind." Post has devoted his career to political psychology. He received a bachelorís magna cum laude degree and his medical degree from Yale, with post-doctoral training in psychiatry at the Harvard Medical School and the National Institute of Mental Health. He also received graduate training at the Johns Hopkins Universityís School of Advanced International Studies. Post came to George Washington University after retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency in 1986. He served at the CIA for 21 years and founded and directed the Center for the Analysis of Personality and Political Behavior. The center is an interdisciplinary behavioral science unit that provides assessments of foreign leadership and decision-making for the president and other senior officials to prepare them for summits and high-level negotiations. As founder of the CIA center, Post assembled teams of psychologists, anthropologists and sociologists to blend psychoanalytic precepts with political and cultural insights to study world leaders. In the 1970s, Post also helped launch the U.S. governmentís program to understand the psychology of terrorism. "It was a marvelous intellectual adventure," Post said of his two decades at the CIA. Post has remained a leader in his field after leaving the CIA to become a professor at George Washington. After Iraqís 1991 invasion of Kuwait, Post developed a political psychological profile of Saddam Hussein that was widely studied. He also testified on Capitol Hill about Saddam before the first Gulf War. Postís expertise on terrorism has also taken him to the courtroom. He served as a psychiatric expert on terrorist psychology for the Department of Justice in the 1997 trial of a terrorist associated with the Abu Nidal organization. In July 2001, he testified in New York as an expert witness in the federal trial of an al Qaeda terrorist responsible for the 1998 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Tanzania. Since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, Post has testified before various U.S. congressional committees on bio-terrorism, terrorist motivations and the psychology of nuclear terrorism. He has been published widely on crisis decision-making, leadership, treason, and the psychology of political violence and terrorism. Recently, he has written about the threat posed by terrorists using weapons of mass destruction. "There is often a misunderstanding that Iím only looking at madmenóquite the contrary," Post said. "Itís hard to be seriously mentally ill and still be a successful leader." A comprehensive and credible approach to personality assessments, Post argues, should take into account the leadersí personal and political development, the historical context in which they have grown up, turning points in their personal and professional lives, the impact of cultural forces, the role of mentors and role models, and the development of self-image, sense of mission and world view. "You have to ask yourself what are the experiences that have shaped the personís view of the world," he said. To get into the heads and hearts of his subjects, Post studies their writings and articles written about them. He reviews audio and videotapes and conducts interviews with those who have had direct dealings with them. "My best information comes from diplomats. I often collate the impressions of diplomats as I develop my profiles," he explained. "Most skilled diplomats are very skilled political psychologists, although they wouldnít use that label. They instinctively try to determine what the person they are dealing with is really like. They develop an understanding of the strengths, weaknesses, vulnerabilities and sensibilities of those whom they deal with." Post said it sometimes requires probing on his part to get diplomats to offer their subjective impressions of leaders, but he added that these insights provide crucial detail and texture to his studies. Postís work achieved international recognition when his team at the CIA developed profiles that President Jimmy Carter famously used at the 1978 Camp David Peace Accords. Post supervised a team that prepared profiles of Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat that Carter drew from during the high-stakes negotiations. Post said his team produced three memos: a profile of Sadat, one of Begin, and an essay that discussed how Carter might mediate between the two leaders given their vastly different personalities, life experiences and negotiating styles. Carter has said these essays were very valuable as he led the historic negotiations that culminated in a sweeping peace agreement. Post said he carefully avoids commenting about the psychological health of current U.S. leaders, explaining that it is ethically wrong to offer "casual psychological assessments." "I donít give diagnoses. What Iím doing is not a professional diagnostic opinion. Itís a clinical personality profile that reflects the cultural, interpersonal dynamics of the leader and is not [conclusive]. Iím suggesting patterns," he said. Although Postís work is widely applauded, some analysts question if psychological insights offer significant guidance for understanding global leaders. Sally Satel, a psychiatrist who is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, said she is skeptical that her profession provides unique insights into political leadership. "The temptation to psychoanalyze public figures from the safety of an armchair is strong, probably even stronger for those with professional credentials," she said. "Psycho-biographers would have readers believe that they can overcome their biases because their techniques are objective and rigorous. I donít think the evidence confirms this," Satel said. "For psychological insight on important political figures, I suggest we turn to respected biographersópeople such as William Manchester or Robert Caro or Lou Cannon. They are perceptive, meticulous and humane observers. They may have brought theories to their work, but they do not wrap themselves in the mantle of scientific authority." Nevertheless, after studying terrorism for nearly three decades, Post hopes his insights help the United States wage the most effective war possible on terror. "Terrorism is at heart a vicious form of psychological warfare," he said. "Smart bombs and missiles will not win this war. The only way to counter psychological warfare is with psychological warfare, countering the distorted extremist rhetoric of bin Laden and radical Islamist clerics. This will be a long struggle." Post said it is wrong to consider terrorism as a single phenomenon, arguing that there is a wide spectrum of terrorist groups, each of which has a different psychology, motivation and decision-making structure. "One should not speak of terrorist psychology, but rather of terrorist psychologies." According to the professor, there are several distinct types of terrorism that distinguish among political, criminal and pathological terrorism. Regarding political terrorism, Post said it is important to further distinguish among state terrorism, state-supported terrorism and sub-state terrorism. "There is no short-range solution to the problem of terrorism, but you have to do some short-range things. Itís imperative for our security," he said, referring to efforts to disrupt and destroy terrorist cells. Post said a long-range approach to combating terrorism must include a strategy to inhibit potential recruits from joining the groups, produce tension within the terrorist groups, encourage individuals to leave the groups, and reduce external support for the groups and their leaders. "Right now, bin Laden has become a heroic figure. People are lining up to join up with al Qaeda and Hamas," he said. "For every terrorist we eliminate there are 10 more to take his place. We have to deal with the long-range production of terrorists." Post added that it is critical to resist the temptation to dismiss terrorists as merely irrational or deranged. "Iíve been an expert witness in four different trials, and Iíve not met an emotionally disturbed terrorist. You have to think of this as social pathology rather than individual pathology." John Shaw is a contributing writer for The Washington Diplomat.