Jean-FranÁois Rischard World Bank Executive Urges Bold Steps to Prevent Global ëHigh Nooní by John Shaw Jean-FranÁois Rischard believes the global community can no longer respond to a growing list of pressing problems with partial solutions and tepid compromises. He believes that governments, businesses and civil society working together need to come up with clear choices, decisive action and new ways of confronting global challenges. ìI donít think that muddling through is an alternative scenario,î Rischard said in an interview at the Westin Fairfax Hotel on Embassy Row. ìWe need imaginative thinking, out-of-the box thinking. We also need really fast thinking because we face many urgent global issues that have to be dealt with soon, not in 30 years or 50 years. Each issue when you look at it has a time-clock ticking behind it,î he added. Rischard has worked at the World Bank for nearly 25 years and is now vice president for Europe. He holds doctoral degrees in law and economics from universities in Europe and a master of business administration from Harvard Business School. One of his classmates at Harvard was President George W. Bush. Soft-spoken and thoughtful, Rischard is a native of Luxembourg who now lives in Paris with his wife and three sons. Rischard was in Washington, D.C., during a recent book tour for his provocative new book, ìHigh Noon.î His views have attracted considerable attention partly because of the intriguing juxtaposition of his strong establishment credentials and the huge changes he advocates in how the worldís toughest problems are addressed. ìIím trying to force people to think differently. Iím pushing in a direction that is unusual for most people. Unless we start to think differently, we face two very crucial decades that could be wasted,î he said. ìHow to act on these problems without world war or a big catastrophe in front of youóthatís a challenge we face. And we need to act without completely reinventing the existing system, which would take forever,î he added. Rischard has been explaining and refining his vision of the future for years in debates with colleagues at the World Bank and at high-level international meetings. He argues that two powerful forces are shaping the world of the 21st century: the demographic explosion and a new global economy that is propelled by technological and economic revolutions. On the demographic front, Rischard noted that the worldís population grew from 5 billion in 1990 to 6 billion in 2002 and will reach 8 billion by 2020. At that time, there will be 60 cities with more than 5 million people and about 25 cities with 10 million or more. He said many of these people will reside in the developing world where 3 billion people now live on less than $2 a day. Rischard also says that economic forces will mold this more crowded world. The new global economy, he noted, is far more complex than the American dot-com boom of the 1990s. It consists of an economic revolution in which most people work in interconnected market economies and a technological revolution in which advances in communications, neuroscience and renewable energy are creating astonishing possibilities. Rischard said that while enormous opportunities loom in the future, there are 20 global issues that must be addressed in the next two decadesóor else. These issues include global warming, ecosystem loss and fisheries depletion, deforestation, fresh water scarcity, maritime safety and pollution, global poverty, the proliferation of infectious diseases and illegal drugs, archaic tax systems, inadequate e-commerce rules and intellectual property rights laws, outdated trade, investment and competition regulations, and labor and migration challenges. Although many of the issues are linked, each requires specific, careful and focused attention: ìWe face huge challenges that are not one big thing but 20 specific issues that all say ëurgent, urgent, urgent.í None can be put off for 30 or 50 years. ìWhat is so gripping about all of these issues is that itís like turning a tanker to fix them. For a lot of these issues, like global warming, if you fix them the beneficiaries will be our children and grandchildren. Many involve local losses and global wins,î Rischard said. Although quick to acknowledge that most of these global problems are growing more difficult, Rischard said there have been some successes that give him hope. He cited global efforts to phase out substances that opened a hole in the ozone layer. He said there has been important progress since the Montreal Protocol of 1987, adding that some experts now believe the ozone hole will soon shrink and may close in 50 years. Rischard said the ozone problem has been solved because it was carefully defined, the science was compelling, alternative technologies developed quickly, and the commitments of only a few nations were essential. Other problems, such as global warming, will be far more difficult to resolve, he noted. ìI think we should introduce new vehicles that would put pressure on the global system and put pressure on nation-states to behave more like global citizens than they would otherwise be,î he said. According to Rischard, current governing structures arenít working well now and will be increasingly irrelevant in the future. Problems are so complex that traditional approaches such as laboriously negotiated treaties and carefully orchestrated intergovernmental conferences do little good. ìWe donít have time to experiment with global government,î he said, adding that innovations such as the European Union (EU) have been important but will not be adequate to tackle the coming onslaught of problems. He said that although the EU has accomplished much, it is composed of 15 relatively similar nations, many of which have been working together for half a century. ìThe world doesnít have five decades for this. We donít have the time to go through the motions the EU did,î he said. Rischard added that global issues networks are needed to address vexing problems. These networks would be made up of representatives from governments, business and international civil society and would study problems, craft solutions, and build global support for strong action. The networks would provide the kind of speedy and creative problem solving that Rischard says is needed. ìThese issues are so complicated that if you donít break problem solving down, issue by issue, you canít get your arms around it.î Rischard said that for networks to work, India and China must participate because the two nations constitute about one-third of the worldís population. ìIn the end, itís not whether the U.S. assumes leadership or Europe gets its act together or Japan emerges from its difficult situation. Itís really whether India and China play ball on these issues. Thatís the $100,000 question. The global policies of these two nations over the next 20 years is very important,î he said. Rischard has been outlining his ideas on networked governance in lectures and papers in recent years and was urged to present them in a comprehensive way. He wrote ìHigh Noonî in less than a year during weekends, vacations and evenings while also maintaining a busy schedule as a World Bank executive. Rischard pointed out that the views in the book are personal ones, but he said that his work at the World Bank has helped him think through problems and develop plausible solutions. ìThe bank is an institution that has been maligned as bureaucratic, but itís a place where you can think for yourself and talk about ideas,î he said. He expects his book to be criticized by some who find it too simplistic while others will challenge his faith in networked governance. ìIt was a book I wrote on my own, outside the World Bank. It was a bold book to write. I wanted to see what happens to a book like this where the author sticks his neck out,î he said. ìWriting a book like this is a bit of risk. You run the risk of being called naive. But it is a choice of two naivetiesómy naivetÈ or the naivetÈ of believing the current system will be able to solve the worldís big problems,î he said. Rischard very much wants his ideas to resonate with young people, and he hopes they may inspire a new generation to create the kind of visionary solutions that are badly needed. ìI hope young people pick up on these ideas. My book has been written in that spirit.î John Shaw is a contributing writer to The Washington Diplomat.
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