Gen. Charles Boyd Looking Into the Future For Security Trends by John Shaw Working out of a modest corner office in a nondescript glass and concrete building in Arlington, Va., Charles Boyd spends his days taking long, hard gazes into the future. Boyd is the executive director of the U.S. Commission on National Security for the 21st Century, a special panel that was created to conduct a sweeping review of the nationís national security goals and structures for the next 25 years. The panel is chaired by two former U.S. senators, Gary Hart and Warren Rudman, and is composed of 14 commissioners from both political parties who have extensive experience in international affairs. Boyd, a retired four-star Air Force general, directs the commissionís staff, organizes the panelís research, and frames the various policy options that are under consideration. In an interview, Boyd said the panel is doing the most consequential and comprehensive review of American security in 50 years. He is quick to acknowledge that the panel faces two almost equally daunting challenges: first to understand important security trends that are unfolding across the world and identify appro priate policies for the U.S. to implement; and second to publish a report that gains national attention, receives a careful review from the next Congress and president, and stimulates action. "Developing a visionary strategy that is implementable in the real world isnít easy. In fact itís really hard. But it can be done and has been done. I donít see any reason why we canít do it," Boyd said. "We hope to set in motion some very significant changes in our security structure. And everywhere we go in our work there is a recognition of the need for this country to change. If weíve heard it one time weíve heard it a thousand times: ëYou are the last hope. You have to be successful,í" he added. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich came up with the idea of a panel to contemplate Americaís security challenges several years ago. He convinced Congress in 1997 that a thorough review of national security processes and structures was needed. In mid-1998 that study was chartered by the secretary of defense and endorsed by the White House and Congress. Defense Secretary William Cohen has called the effort "the most comprehensive review of the national security environment, processes and organizations since the National Security Act of 1947." "Secretary Cohen envisioned the commission as a gift from this administration to the next," Boyd said. Boyd was selected to direct the effort and has sought to inject fresh thinking into a domain that tends to resist new ideas. He has organized more than 30 seminars and conferences for the commission so it could consider cultural, political, economic and security trends in the emerging world. Economists, diplomats, military strategists, demographers, historians, political scientists, cultural anthropologists and sociologists have briefed it. The panel has received technical assistance from the State, Defense, Justice, Treasury departments and has worked closely with scores of research groups and think tanks. Boyd also organized an extensive trip in which a number of commissioners visited Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Great Britain, France, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Belgium, the Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Israel, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Pakistan, India, Singapore and Indonesia. The trip was packed with meetings with people from all walks of life and was very useful, Boyd said. "We got a look at where others think security trends are heading. We learned what people think about us, about Americaís role in the world, about their perception of how America exercises power. It was fascinating to learn how the world sees us," he said. Seeking to establish a clear direction for the panelís deliberations, Boyd organized a debate between two members with very different ideological leaningsóthe conservative Gingrich and the liberal Les Gelb, president of the Council on Foreign Relationsóon how engaged the United States should be with the rest of the world. "After that debate, there was a convergence behind the view that our commission would have as its center of gravity an opportunity-based strategy, as opposed to a reactive or threat-based strategy. This was something we never had during the Cold War," Boyd said. "The heart of our strategy is that the way to further our own interests is by ensuring that an increasing fraction of the worldís population shares in the benefits of democratization and economic growth. Itís important to devise means to advance opportunities for all people," he added. The Commission on National Security is issuing its findings in three reports. The first volume, which was released last September, describes the evolving global security climate. The second, which was published in April, lays out a security strategy for the nation. The final report, which will be released early next year, will describe how the institutions and processes of Americaís security system should be overhauled to implement this new strategy. Regarding the evolving global security climate, the panel sees a world packed with opportunities for the United States but also brimming with potential threats. For example, it says the nation will be increasingly vulnerable to attacks on its own territory and says that conventional military power wonít be able to fully protect the nationís citizens from violence. "For many years to come Americans will become increasingly less secure and much less secure than they now believe themselves to be.... Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers," it says. It predicts the biggest threat may come from subnational terrorist groups using genetically engineered pathogens or from a cyber-attack on air traffic control systems. The report also argues that advances in information technology and biotechnology will create new vulnerabilities for the country; emerging technologies will divide the world as well as bring it together; the evolving global economic infrastructure will shape the security of all advanced nations; energy resources will continue to have a major strategic significance; all borders will become more porous; and sovereignty of states will come under increasing pressure but will endure. The panel also predicts that fragmentation and failure of states will occur and be destabilizing; future foreign crises will be replete with atrocities that will challenge national morale; space will be a key component of the military environment; the U.S. will be called upon frequently to intervene in crises; and the emerging security environment will require military and national capacities that emphasize stealth, speed, range, accuracy, mobility and lethality. In its second volume on a new national security strategy, the panel says a new strategy should focus on defending the United States and ensuring its safety. The strategy says the nation should maintain social cohesion, economic cohesiveness, technological ingenuity and military strength. It should help integrate China, Russia and India into the international system and promote the dynamism of the global economy and improve the effectiveness of international institutions and international law. Also, it should adapt alliances and other regional mechanisms to a new era in which Americaís partners will seek greater autonomy and responsibility, and help the international community tame the disintegrative forces spawned by relentless change. Reviewing the detailed and highly nuanced findings, Boyd said the panel believes it is crucial for the United States to focus on key challenges and the big picture. "A lot of careful thought went into the prioritizing in this report. The commission believes we should do the heavy lifting first and make sure the causes of instability are being addressed," he said. "Unless you integrate Russia, China and India into the world community, all bets are off. Those are big powerful countries that can cause instability over a very large fraction of the worldís surface," he said. In its final volume, the panel will consider how the nationsís national security apparatus should be overhauled. Boyd said the panel, which meets several times a month, is now examining how to reform Americaís security institutions, ensure homeland safety and recruit and retain quality people to manage and implement security policy. He hopes the three reports will stimulate a wide national debate and get careful attention from Congress, the White House and the wider foreign policy community in 2001. "The timing of our final report is no accident. It is designed to make available a really thoughtful work based on great reflection for a ne w government that has no reason to protect that which is in place," he said. Boyd hopes the report will challenge Americans to think more rigorously about the future. "The world is changing more rapidly than most Americans understand, and our ability to respond is not changing at the same rate. There are more diverse opportunities than we are accustomed to and that complexity is going to increase. Itís not going to be static, and it certainly wonít get simpler. So you need a strategy and structures and mechanisms that are far more effective, efficient and agile than any we have known before," he said. Boyd brings to his current job a clear mind, gentle demeanor, vast experience and remarkable life story. A native of Rockwell City, Iowa, he joined the Air Force in 1959 as a young man with a passion for flying. "I was a young kid from Iowa who wanted to fly jet aircraft. And I had the opportunity to do it. What began there has led to a wide range of opportunities and interesting challenges. But it all started with a kid who wanted to be a jet fighter pilot," he said. Commissioned as a second lieutenant through the aviation cadet program, he later served in a variety of assignments in Europe, the Pacific and the continental United States. He is a command pilot and flew F-105s in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War. Boydís plane was shot down outside of Hanoi in 1966 and the North Vietnamese captured him. He spent seven years as a prisoner of war. "That experience helped make me a person who prioritizes things. It helped give me a sense of what is actually meaningful in life, an ability to concentrate on those things and ignore what isnít important," he said. "It also helped give me a sense of caution about what Iíd be willing to send American boys and girls to do. It should be a pretty important job if Americans are going to risk their lives," he said. Boydís valor in Vietnam earned him some of the American militaryís most prestigious awards and decorations including the Air Force Cross, Distinguished Service Medal, Silver Star, Legion of Merit, Distinguished Flying Cross, Bronze Star and Purple Heart. After he was finally released from North Vietnam in 1973, Boyd continued his ascent through the ranks, becoming lieutenant colonel in 1975, colonel in 1979, brigadier general in 1985, major general in 1987, lieutenant general in 1990 and then general in 1992. In 1992, he was selected as deputy commander in chief of the U.S. European Command in Germany. There he supervised the daily activities of a unified command over an area encompassing 82 countries and more than 13 million square miles. After retiring from the military in 1995, Boyd headed up the 21st Century International Legislatorís Project, which was designed to link elected officials worldwide via the Internet. He also led several fact finding missions to the Balkans and has written extensively on the serious challenges the United States will face in that region. When Boyd completes his work with the commission early next year, he plans to take some time off, travel through Italy on an extensive bike trip and ponder his future. He is determined to stay active in the debate about American security. "The things that truly interest me now are the big strategic questions, "he siad." How is the nation going to provide for its security in a world that is changing very rapidly and will continue to change very rapidly? Thatís a big, important question, and I donít expect this commission is going to have all the answers." John Shaw is a contributing writer for The Washington Diplomat.